Includes bibliographical references (p. [241]-252) and index

Chapter 1: The first rule. There should be the possibility of surprise in social research. Selecting a research question -- Researchable questions -- Interesting questions -- Selecting a sample -- Samples in qualitative studies -- Is meaningful social research possible? -- Summary -- Student exercises on Rule 1. Chapter 2: The second rule. Look for differences that make a difference, and report them. You can't explain a variable with a constant -- Maximizing variance to find the effect of a cause -- Size versus statistical significance -- Comparing effects where there is a common metric -- Calibration: converting explanatory variables to a common metric -- Substantive profiling: the use of telling comparisons -- Visual presentation of results -- Policy importance -- Importance for theory -- Conclusion -- Student exercises on Rule 2. Chapter 3: The third rule. Build reality checks into your research. Internal reality checks -- Reality checks on data-dubious values and incomplete data -- Reality checks on measures-aim for consistency in conceptualization and measurement -- Reality checks on models-the form equivalence check -- External reality checks: validation with other data and methods -- Using casual-process observations to test plausibility of results -- Using ethnographic data to help interpret survey results -- Other examples of multiple-method research -- Concluding remark -- Student exercises on Rule 3. Chapter 4: The fourth rule. Replicate where possible. Sources of uncertainty in social research -- Overview: from population to sample and back to population -- Measurement error as a source of uncertainty -- Illustration two methods for estimating global poverty -- Toward a solution: identical analyses of parallel data sets -- Meta-analysis: synthesizing results formally across studies -- Summary: Your confidence intervals are too narrow -- Student exercises on Rule 4. Chapter 5: The fifth rule. Compare like with like. Correlation and causality

Types of strategies for comparing like with like -- Matching versus looking for differences. The standard regression method for comparing like with like -- Critique of the standard linear regression strategy -- Comparing like with like through fixed-effects methods -- First-difference models: subtracting out the effects of confounding variables -- Special case: growth-rate models -- Sibling models -- Comparing like with like through matching on measured variables -- Exact matching -- Propensity-score method -- Matching as a preprocessing strategy for reducing model dependence -- Comparing like with like through naturally occurring random assignment -- Instrumental variables: matching through partial random assignment -- Matching through naturally occurring random assignment to the treatment group -- Comparison of strategies for comparing like with like -- Conclusion -- Student exercises on Rule 5. Chapter 6: The sixth rule. Use panel data to study individual change and repeated cross-section data to study social change. Analytic differences between panel and repeated cross-section data -- Three general questions about change -- Changing-effect models, Part 1: two points in time -- Changing effects models, Part 2: multilevel models with time as the context -- What we want to know -- The general multilevel model -- Convergence models -- The sign test for convergence -- Convergence model versus changing-effect model -- Bridging individual and social change: estimating cohort replacement effects -- An accounting scheme for social change -- Linear decomposition method -- Summary -- Student exercises on Rule 6. Chapter 7: The seventh rule. Let method be the servant, not the master. Obsession with regression -- Naturally occurring ramdom assignment, again -- Decomposition work in the social sciences -- Decomposition of variance and inequality -- Decomposition of segregation indexes -- The effects of social context -- Context effects as objects of study -- Context

effects as nuisance -- Critical tests in social research -- Conclusion -- Student exercises on Rule 7.